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Investment Strategy by Jeffrey Saut

Street Smarts 
April 24, 2017

"Years ago we read a book that a Wall Street pro told us would give us good judgement by benefiting from the experiences of others who had suffered hard hits.  ....."Click here to read more

It's Learning!
April 17, 2017

"The sequence from the movie that "stuck" with me was near the end where it was suggested that the WOPR computer was actually learning from the game simulations that any nuclear attack by the U.S. was losing proposition ....."Click here to read more

Shad Rowe
April 10, 2017

"I spoke with uber investor Frederick "Shad" Rowe, captain of Dallas-based Greenbrier Partners last Thursday. Shad always has great investment insights, and his March letter to investors was no exception....."Click here to read more

Peter Pan
April 3, 2017

"I lived in and around the D.C. Beltway for years, and still have a good network on Capitol Hill. I have been thinking a lot about Ms. Duncan's comments concerning people in D.C. easily being able to ....."Click here to read more

Pull
March 27, 2017

"Pull' is a term used in shooting sporting clays, which are supposed to represent real birds and sharpen the shooter's ability to actually hunt live birds. The term is yelled by the shooter to tell the person operating the trap to launch a sporting clay....."Click here to read more

The Climb
March 20, 2017

"I Spent last week climbing the mountains of Idaho and Utah, seeing accounts and doing presentations for our financial advisors and their clients. In my absence, the stock market did some climbing of its own....."Click here to read more

Being Wrong and Still Making Money
March 13, 2017

"The brilliant Peter Bernstein once wrote, ' After 28 years at this post, and 22 years before this in money management, I can sum up whatever wisdom I have accumulated this way: The trick is not to be....."Click here to read more

Not Afraid
March 6, 2017

"Around the turn of the century a bandit rode in from Mexico, robbed a small Texas bank, and fled back across the border. A Texas Ranger picked up his trail and nabbed him in a Mexican Village. The bandit spoke no English and the ranger no Spanish, so another villager was asked to interpret....."Click here to read more

Jesse Livermore

February 27, 2017

"Jesse Livermore was one of the legendary icons of Wall Street speculation. Known as the "boy plunger," because he began trading at the tender age of 14, he was subsequently banned from any "bucket shops" for winning too often. Therefore, he moved to New York City to swing in the big leagues....."Click here to read more

A New Queen Bee?!
February 21,2017

"By the time a queen bee is five she is old and no longer reproduces, leaving her army of honeybees torn between loyalty and survival. Since the hive cannot survive without a productive queen, the beekeeper reaches into the hive with a long-gloved hand and squashes the enfeebled queen. With the entire hive as a witness, all know the queen is dead. Absent the scent of their leader, the honeybees panic. But, the beekeeper is prepared, having ordered a new queen from a bee breeder.. Arriving in a two-inch-long wooden box with a screen at the top and bottom, the queen is accompanied by a court of six to eight escort bee who care for her every whim, cleaning her, feeding her, removing her waste. At one end of the box a tiny piece of hard candy blocks access to the queen. When the box is inserted into the hive, the first instinct of the worker bees, who immediately know she has the wrong scent, is to kill the new queen. The workers struggle to reach her, but are blocked by the candy. Soon they become diverted by the sweet candy, and over the two or three days ti takes to eat through it they succumb to the enticement...."Click here to read more

The Great White Hurricane
February 13,2017

"Unseasonably mild and clearing" was the weather forecast going into the Ides of March back in the year of 1888. And it was true, as temperatures hovered in the 40s and 50s along the East Coast. However, toreential rains began falling and on March 12th the rain changed to heavy snow, temperatures plunged and sustained winder of more than 50 miles per hour blew. ..."Click here to read more


Nothing Feels Stable
February 6, 2017

"You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life.' - Winston Churchill. I recalled the aforementioned quote while reading a rather interesting article by the always erudite Peggy Noonan..."Click here to read more

Next Year In Jerusalem
January 30,2017

"As most of you know, I was in Europe for 19 days seeing institutional accounts and speaking at conferences. However, the last few days of the trip were spent with our new institutional affiliate Oscar Gruss & Son in Israel, where..."Click here to read more


Saving Retirement

January 23,2017

"We have often written that when everyone is asking the same question, it is usually the wrong question. However, I have also found the converse to be quite true- if no one is asking a question, it is probably one that you want to at least ask yourself just in case. ..."Click here to read more


The Great Rotation

January 17,2017

"By now, you have likely heard something, either directly or indirectly about "The Great Rotation" from bonds into stocks. Just "googling" the term will pull up a whole host of articles written by pratcially every major financial news organization in existence, and it seems that every "bond king" and market strategist has weighed in with his or her own respective opinions on the matter..."Click here to read more

Buy C-R-A-P
January 9,2017

"We live in a modern wold of acronyms and buzzwords, and teh financial industry is certainly no exception. In face, it may be one of the worst  culprits, what with the FANG, ZIRP, TINA, BREXIT, QUITALY,..."Click here to read more

Market Mantras
January 3,2017

"It's what you learn after you know it all that counts. - Earl Weaver..."Click here to read more

If Santa Fails to Call the Bears Will Roam on Broad and Wall 
December 27, 2016

"As we enter 2017, we expect the current economic rebound to continue to suggesting GDP growth will likely move toward the 3% level by the end of the year based on less monetary stimulus, more fiscal stimulus, a reduction  in the corporate tax rate, and deregulation. Our S P 500 price target for the year is 2450, but we believe the S&P 500 may actually..."Click here to read more

Miracle on 34th Street
December 19, 2016

"Miracle on 34th Street" is a 1947 movie whose plot takes place between Thanksgiving Day and Christmas in New York City. It focuses on a department store Santa Claus who claims to be the real Santa. I have watched the movie ever since I was a pup and always look forward to seeing it over the holidays..."Click here to read more

Dow Direction Dictates 
December 12, 2016

"The absolute price of a stock is unimportant. It is the direction of price movement which counts..."Click here to read more


Serenity Now? 
December 5, 2016

"One of the funnier shows in the Seinfeld comedy series was "Serenity Now." The show centered on that phrase as George's father, Frank Costanza, repeats the phrase numerous times every time he gets upset ....."Click here to read more

Not Afraid 
November 28, 2016

“Around the turn of the century a bandit rode in from Mexico, robbed a small Texas bank, and fled back across the border. A Texas Ranger picked up his trail and nabbed him in a Mexican village. The bandit spoke no English and the ranger no Spanish, so another village was asked to interpret. ....."Click here to read more


Don't Lose Your Position

November 21, 2016

“In honor of the thanksgiving holiday this week,  I thought I'd reshare the fabled Wall Street tale about a character named "old Turkey" from the 1923 classic Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. The book is one you should definitely read if you have not read it before, and reread if you have, for it is filled with all sorts of trading and investing wisdom. None perhaps is so famous though, as the story of old Turkey, who, when asked why he wasn't going to sell stock ....."Click here to read more


That Was the Week That Was
November 14, 2016

“So, last week was interesting, huh? If nothing else, it was definitely a far cry from two or three months ago when investors could check in on the markets only every few days and not really miss much of anything. But after Donald Trump shocked the world on Tuesday night and the news networks first began reporting that the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 500 points (then 600 points…then 800 points), Jeff Saut and I, like most market participants, came in Wednesday morning expecting stock market carnage. In our view, the most likely reaction was going to be ....."Click here to read more

Risk and Reality
November 7, 2016

“The ultimate dream of market mavens is discovering a method that predicts the price movement of the major common stocks such as the 30 Dow Jones Industrials. Obviously, such a system could not make the perfect prediction, could not be 100% right all the time. But there have been prediction methods exploiting price discrepancies that gave investors an edge of perhaps 20-25% or more a year. ....."Click here to read more


The Ruling Passion?
October 31, 2016

“Many shrewd investors who were nervous about overvalued shares had lost out before by selling too early and were coming back into the market. They faced the classic dilemma of the rational man caught in an irrational frenzy, which had been so evident in the South Sea Bubble of 1720: as the banker John Biddulph Martin had said, ‘When the rest of the world are mad, we must imitate them in some measure.’ At an early stage of the bubble the great mathematician Isaac Newton had realized how irrational it was and sold his shares in the South Sea Company at a profit ....."Click here to read more

Chessboard?
October 24, 2016

“There was the king who held a chess tournament among the peasants and asked the winner what he wanted as his prize. The peasant, in apparent humility, asked only that a kernel of wheat be placed for him on the first square of his chessboard, two kernels on the second, four on the third and so forth. The king fell for it and had to import grain from Argentina for the next 700 years. Eighteen and a half million trillion kernels, are enough, if each kernel is a quarter-inch long (which may not be; I’ve never seen wheat in its pre-English-muffin form), to stretch to the sun and back 391,320 times. ......"Click here to read more

It's Someone Else's Money
October 17, 2016

“The analogy between the stock market and poker has always been irresistible. Interestingly, the stock market increasingly resembles a low-stakes recreational game among friends and less the sort of ‘there goes the ranch’ game favored by cutthroat professionals. Recreational poker is frustrating but ultimately profitable to the serious player. Recreational players come to play......"Click here to read more


Darvas Discipline
October 10, 2016

“I knew that I had to adopt a cold, unemotional attitude towards stocks; that I must not fall in love with them when they rose and I must not get angry when they fell; that there are no such animals as good or bad stocks. There are only rising and falling stocks – and I should hold the rising ones and sell those that fall. I knew that to do this I had to achieve something much more difficult than anything before....."Click here to read more

Patience
October 3, 2016

“One of the rarest traits on Wall Street is patience, yet patience is one of the biggest secrets of successful investing. As noted
in R.W. McNell’s book Beating The Stock Market: If there is ever a time when speculators should exercise....."Click here to read more

Schadenfreude
September 26, 2016

“Schadenfreude: is pleasure derived from the misfortune of others.
What a week! We first met with Steve Eisman, and then did a conference call with Rich Bernstein followed by a video with
SEI’s portfolio manager Steve Treftz. Subsequently, it was off to visit some more of our new best friends at the Alex. Brown
offices in Atlanta and North Carolina . . . I’m exhausted....."Click here to read more


I Should Have
September 12, 2016

“A man has rigged up a turkey trap with a trail of corn leading into a big box with a hinged door. The man holds a long piece of twine connected to the door, which he can use to pull the door shut once enough turkeys have wandered into the box. However, once he shuts the door, he can’t open it again without going back to the box, which would scare away any turkeys lurking on the outside...."Click here to read more

Time or Timing
September 12, 2016

““Hey Jeff,” an emailer wrote on Friday as we arrived in Quebec City from Cape Cod to have dinner with some family and Insitutional friends, “I thought you said it would not be until mid/late-September before a point of vulnerability would arrive!  Today is merely September 9, what gives?” I responded, “As often expressed in our missives/comments, the short/ intermediate-timing models ALWAYS have a 3-5 session margin of error. . ....."Click here to read more

Water World
September 6, 2016

“'As we dig out from Hurricane Hermine, where residents of Cedar Key experienced a nine-foot sea surge and consequently were looking for dry land, investors too have been seeking “dry land” for the past few months. To be sure, it has been a difficult environment with the S&P 500 (SPX/2179.98) trapped in a trading range between the August 2 low of ~2148 and the August 15 high of ~2191. In fact, looking at the closing prices of the S&P 500 (e-minis) shows an August . ....."Click here to read more